Trading News

The prices of oil hit its highest in 2019 as refinery processing data in China rose to a high in 2018. It brings a huge cheer to the industry as China which is the second largest economy in the world had a slowdown in 2018. The price rise is also partly because of the OPEC supply cuts. The National Bureau of statistics which released the data on Monday also reported that the output of the crude oil refinery jumped to 603.57 million tonnes in 2018 which is 12.12 million barrels a day and is up by 6.8% from last year. These figures are despite the slow economic growth witnessed by China after it posted its lowest growth in 28 years at 6.6%.

After the release of this data, the WTI or the West Texas Intermediate saw its price rise to $54 for a barrel for the first time in 2019. Brent also saw its cost rise to $63 for the first time this year. International Brent Crude oil was at $62.94 up by 0.4%.

Analysts had earlier predicted a much worse situation, and although the slowdown was as expected, it was not as worse as they had predicted. Despite the rise in oil prices the situation in the Chinese economy and the global economy is still gloomy, though a possible US-China truce and Beijing easing the credit crunch is a positive sign.

The Crude prices are likely to rise further as analysts believe that the supply cuts by OPEC will further strengthen it. A statement by JP Morgan said that Brent could remain above $60 per barrel on OPEC compliance, slower U.S growth, and the expiration of Iran waivers’. It also suggested that investors should consider staying for long as they expect the price to rise.

The reason behind the price rise:

Analysts believe that by the end of this year, the price of crude oil can rise to $70 as the OPEC cuts its supply which leads to a supply deficit in the market. Energy firms cut the rigs to drill for oil and reached its lowest of 852 in May 2018. That was mainly because of the slump in crude prices in the US by up to 40% last year. Though the number of rigs reduced, the oil production in the US still was up by 2 million barrels per day to a high of 11 million barrels per day. Though the growth which was seen by last year is not likely to happen this in 2019, analysts still expect that the US will remain the biggest producer of oil.

Company News

The United Arab Emirates [UAE] and Saudi Arabia disclosed an agreement saying they will co-operate with each other for developing a new cryptocurrency. The report was published on 19 January by UAE official news agency named Emirate News Agency.

By the statement, The Executive members of Saudi-Emirati Co-ordination Council organized a meeting in the capital city of UAE Abu Dhabi. Altogether there were 16 members from both the countries that participated in the meeting. The reason for organizing the meeting was to examine more about the new joint initiative the strategy of Resolve.

The Strategy of Resolve is a new joint initiative that has 7 tasks. The 7 tasks include the Development of a cross-border digital currency, civil aviation, and financial awareness youth training. As per the article, the goal of cryptocurrency is to strictly focus on banks mostly during the experiment phase in-order to gain more knowledge about the implementation of blockchain technology and to support cross border payments.

The joint Cryptocurrency project will help in researching to know the impact of central currency on the various financial policies.

This joint initiative will probably strive to safeguard the customer interest, further developing standards for technology at the same time also examining the cybersecurity threats. The initiative will also determine the impact of central currencies by identifying the risks on the monetary policies. Statement according to the Emirate News Agency

In December 2018 Cointelegraph stated that the United Arab Emirates [UAE] Central Bank will be working in partnership as a team with the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority to release a new cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency will be sanctioned and accepted in the cross border exchanges that take place between the two countries.

In December 2018 itself, Cointelegraph published that- In 2019 because of its new crypto legislation the United Arab Emirates [UAE] is observing the list of most prominent destinations and is trying to connect with them for blockchain related businesses.

News

UK Parliament has defeated Prime Minister’s Brexit deal on a crushing margin. As the date of the divorce is nearing, UK may have to leave the European Union without a deal or even have to stay in it.

Parliament had voted 432-202 against the deal proposed by the Prime minister. It is said to be the worst defeat for the Government in the recent British history. Not only the Brexiteers but also the lawmakers in support of EU membership voted down the deal.

The final date of March 29 for separation is nearing. And with these uncertainties, the United Kingdom is going through the deepest crisis of the century. The question remains intact about how to leave the union or even whether to leave the union. It should be reported here that the United Kingdom joined the European Union in 1973.

The British Prime Minister Theresa May wanted from the starting to depart with the European Union amicably having decided the future course of the relationship with the union. But, the recent defeat and the first British parliamentary defeat of a treaty since 1864, made it clear that the two years of strategy and persuasion did not work for the PM.

Anand Menon, professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London said the Brexit deal is basically dead. The EU lawmakers, as well as the British lawmakers, would consider the deal dead and as of now, Britain has neither Brexit nor any alternative to Brexit.

The British Prime minister has repeatedly refused to resign in the whole process of gathering consensus, but now she has some limited options at her hands. She might get agreed on the Brexit with no deal with the European Union or any last moment concessions from the European Union. She also has other options like a delay to Brexit, resignation, an election or a referendum.

The Dilemma-

Since 2016 referendum which allowed the Brexit to happen on a majority of 52 to 48 percent, the British political class has been debating how to leave the European projected which was created by Germany and France on the aftermath of World War II.

As the country is divided on the question of EU membership, the matter of vital importance is British’s contemporary position and the importance of its decision as it will shape the future generation’s prosperity.

Before the deal, Theresa May had made one thing clear that Britain would rather stay in the European Union than leaving the European Union without a deal. She had also urged her fellow conservative members not to let the Labour party hold power to control the Brexit. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, said he is now expecting an early election after calling a vote for a no-confidence motion. After the huge defeat, it is undemocratic for her to continue in the Government.

Supporters of EU membership strongly advocate that the Brexit will create more fissures between the western unity and it will undermine the reputation of the United Kingdom as a stable destination for investment, and it would eventually impact Britain’s importance in the Global Politics.

The opponents of Brexit also are hoping for another referendum and this time they are pretty hopeful of a win as the Brexiteers of the past referendum now have the proper insight and knowledge of the consequences of Brexit.

People supporting Brexit stated the over-bureaucratic nature of the union is responsible for the fast falling of the once used to be super powerful British. As per them, in order to continue the competition with countries like the United States and China, it has to change and get out of the Union which prohibits the freedom it requires.

News

After the recent declaration by the Chinese Government of opening up its economy to the foreign players, it can be said that China has not lived up to its promises.

The most sought-after sector is still unreachable by foreign players. Foreign companies do not fully penetrate the country’s financial market. However, after a series of allegations by the companies globally, China has released a bunch of announcements in order to loosen the grip over the sector. Experts were surprised by the announcements at that moment. So, 2018 has seen opening up of the second largest economy of the world. But, there is a certain segment of the financial market, which still has no major access to the massive Asian market.

The segment in the question is Payment Services. As per some reports, People’s Bank of China has not yet formally acknowledged the application forms of Visa and Mastercard to allow these companies to process yuan payments. As per reports, the two companies have filed the application more than a year ago, and as per the regulations of the Central bank, once acknowledged, the decision on the application needs to be done within 90 days.

Though, Visa and MasterCard refused to give any comments on the whole episode. The central bank’s head of payments said that Mastercard had already withdrawn its application last June and Visa’s application lacked some supplement materials.

The Central bank’s representative also said that in the whole process the bank had never raised the issue of full ownership or the requirement of a joint venture in order to get full access to the Chinese market.

Once the two Payment majors get access to the Chinese market, they will have to compete with the local card payment company UnionPay. China’s Central Bank has the highest shares in the company, and it has the complete coverage in the local market, and it also has expanded in the foreign markets as well.

As per statistics, UnionPay has a market share of 36 percent in global bank card payments whereas Visa and Mastercard have 32 percent and 20 percent market share in bank card payment respectively.

China’s reluctance in giving foreign access-

Though there are concerns over China’s reluctance to provide access to its financial market, it has brought many changes recently on that front.

In November, the Central Bank of China granted access to American Express preliminary approval to process and settle domestic Yuan payments. However, it approved the access as American Express agreed to work in a joint venture with a local company Lian Lian.

After a few weeks, UBS announced having the permission of the China Securities Regulatory Commission for increasing stake in the local joint venture to a majority of 51 percent. UBS is the first foreign bank on the Chinese soil to own this much of ownership percentage.

In 2018, both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have announced that China would provide better access to its markets for the foreign companies. They also committed to removing the limit on the stock holding in banks, insurance, and securities sectors. They also would allow foreign investors to buy and trade on mainland-traded stocks.

Xiao Yuanqi, the spokesperson for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said China would further open up its financial market for the banks, insurance companies, and stockbroking agencies. It would be happy to serve as a hub for investment which in turn may bring in professionals and technologies.

However, critics say China has not lived up to the promises it made in 2001 at the time of joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Denying access to the bank card industry is just one example, and there are lots of industries it still provides no access to. They also accused China of violating norms of the WTO by putting a mandatory clause for payment companies to work with UnionPay for all Yuan dominated payments.

In the era of globalization, China is doing the same damage to global trade; it has been alleging the United States of. By not opening up its economy but pushing its exports, China has been able to increase its trade surplus globally. But, in the regime of WTO, this will not go unnoticed for very long. China should consider providing the same amount of access to foreign players; it has been receiving abroad.

Stocks

The world is experiencing a slowdown in growth. Owing to the slump in demand, Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih has recently said that OPEC and all its allies are ready to respond to the global economic slowdown quickly.

Al Falih told that though he did not see any big recession in the near future, they had everything needed in their hands to correct the situation.

Al Falih said if the world sees a slowdown, the oil market will also see a small slowdown that can be absorbed with adjustment in supply.

Oil prices became much higher when the OPEC members along with Russia in December decided to slash the production of oil. President Trump heavily criticized this step. The deal called for a cut of 1.2 million barrels a day from the world market.

Though the step revived the prices, few major economies like China and Germany objected to the step owing to their slow growth of the economy.

Al Falih said that the group along with its allies is ready to even cut more in supply if needed. He added that they were monitoring the market on a daily basis and if they would feel the need to reduce more than 1.2 million barrel a day, they would not hesitate to do that.

It should be reported here that, US crude oil futures have inflated in recent weeks to trade above $51 per barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is roaming around $60. Saudi Arabia would welcome further price hikes by lowering supply.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the country is depending on oil revenue to fund an economic overhaul and support growth. The economy has contracted in 2017, but it is expected to grow by 2.2 percent in 2018 and by 2.4 percent in 2019.

Higher prices of oil will encourage the IPO (Initial Public Offering) of Saudi Arabia’s biggest state-owned oil company, Aramco. It is a part of the country’s plan to diversify the economy from oil to many things.

The IPO along with other reforms were initially planned to happen by 2018 but later stalled for multiple reasons. But, as per the recent news, the country is planning to bring the reforms on by the end of 2021.

The minister said that they were waiting for the right time so that every stakeholder starting from the Government to other shareholders would be benefited from this.

Saudi Arabia has for the first time recently allowed independent auditors to its vast energy reserves. It is a part of the plan by the country to diversify its economy out of oil.

US energy consultancy DeGolyer & MacNaughton concluded that the country has a reserve of 268.5 billion barrels just above the Government given data of 266.3 billion barrel reserve. The vagueness in the total reserve size and its value has led to the stalling of IPO of Aramco, due to skepticisms by the investors.

Opinion & Analysis

The United Kingdom’s economy has slowed down in the last three months and at the lowest in November. And it is the weakest in the past six months. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the economy grew by 0.3 percent during this period and it is 0.4 percent less than the growth of the last three months.

As per the ONS, due to weakened overseas demand, the manufacturers have suffered falls in output for the longest period. As per the statistics, the economy grew by 0.2 percent in November, and it is up from 0.1 percent in October.

Decline-

As per Rob Kent-Smith, head of national accounts at the ONS, the growth in the UK continued to slow from November after performing way better in the middle of the year. Accountancy and housing sector grew by large numbers, but many other sectors saw a sluggish growth.

Manufacturing also saw a poor growth as the car production and pharmaceutical industry performed poorly.

Month on month, construction growth was at 0.6% in November. Manufacturing contracted by 0.3%, while services activity rose at 0.3%. Production as a whole contracted to 0.4%.

Lot many global situations like the trade war between the United States and China and the tumbling growth of the global economy also had spill-over effects on the UK economy.

The case is not limited to the UK only, but figures from Germany and France also showed a similar trend.

The ONS also said the UK economy was returning to moderate growth after growth volatility earlier in 2018.

The uncertainty over the Brexit finalization also has a large impact on the sentiments of the people on spending pattern. Not only the domestic demand but also the demand from the trade partners are also declining.

Another data showed that once erratic items like aircraft orders were stripped out, the divergence between imports and exports – the trade deficit – widened to £9.5bn in the three months to November.

Big brands like JLR, Apple are also facing the crunch in demand owing to the slower global growth and less demand from China. Now it has become evident that large economies like the UK should not depend on specific partners rather than diversifying the consumer base countries.

Along with all these global woes, Brexit headwind is also creating many hurdles for the UK businesses. So, to put the economy again on track, UK should first clear the problems at home by finalizing details about Brexit. Then it should think the ways to tackle the global pressure.