News

After being infamous for facing the ire of the United States, North Korea seems to have changed its way. Though, not on its security front, it is now aiming to bring about economic development. The recent meeting between the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping happened in Beijing. The meeting had multiple agendas like economic ties, nuclear talks and a possible second summit between the U.S. President Trump and Kim.

But, there was one topic which was officially not on the agenda. But, it was considered and thought upon. It was the idea of North Korea joining China’s ambitious continent-spanning Belt and Road Initiative, a project aiming to link more than 60 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East through overland and maritime routes.

After the nuclear threats, the isolation by major countries and the United Nations has been weakening the nation gradually. North Korea is now investment-hungry. And, as per experts, it is the major reason Kim has been engaging with global leaders over the past few years.

North Korea’s other Goals

As the country has been trying very hard to secure nuclear power for prospective alleged threats from the neighbors, North Korea should now move forward to have other goals as well. It has a bad economic condition, so an economic goal for the nation is the need of the hour.

Seoul based online newspaper agency NK News published last month that North Korea is in need of $7.7 million investment. And the information is on North Kore’s foreign trade ministry’s website. And, for this to be happening North Korea would definitely need the help from its rich neighbors.

Among all its neighbors, China seems the brightest for North Korea. The geography, political ideology and the history they share are quite comforting for North Korea. And, China has been the largest trading partner for the economically isolated country for last few years.

Dane Chamorro, a senior partner in the Asia Pacific division of Control Risks, a consulting firm specializing in politics, said North Korea would love to be a part of the mighty Belt and road initiative. It is only waiting for an invitation. Once it is in the group, it can utilize investments and funding to upgrade railway links, ports, and other infrastructures.

Beijing also is not immune to this idea. It has always been prompt in adding more number of partners to this multi-country project. It should be reported here that China has invited North Korea to be a part of the Belt and Road Initiative summit in 2017. But, as of now, nothing has been confirmed about the partnership.

Mintaro Oba, a former U.S. State Department official who specialized in the Koreas in the Obama administration, said having North Korea in the group will be more trouble than the economic worth. So, it is evident China will take much time to consider this.

Having countries like North Korea in a group only will give the group a bad name. It will further cement the doubts and skepticisms of the United States and India that Belt and Road initiative is only to increase the dependence of other member nations on China and with so much of skepticism, it is unlikely to flourish.

As of now, the Chinese leader has decided to go slow with North Korea. Both of these countries will have to wait and watch the global changes in the geopolitical arena. Then only China can decide whether the two countries’ relationship can go more than just security to an economic partnership.

If denuclearisation happens soon in North Korea, it is more likely that China will help the country to be able to stand on its own. China would definitely like North Korea to learn from its history. The economic type and model of economic form in China can be implemented in North Korea; if that happens, China would be the first in Asia to help the country in economic development.

And another factor in this would be South Korea. South Korea is a significant partner in BRI, and if North Korea is taken aboard, South Korea will also have to decide how much the government wants to connect the New Northern Policy with the BRI.

News

After the unexpected departure news of the World Bank President, the race is on to fill the post. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and the daughter and advisor of President Trump, Ivanka Trump is among the contenders.

Kim surprisingly announced his departure from the World Bank after cutting short his second term. His second term was scheduled to end after three years. And, Nikki Haley stepped down of the post of Ambassador last month. Along with Ivanka and Nikki, the other names that are being floated are treasury undersecretary for international affairs David Malpass and Mark Green, head of the US Agency for International Development.

It should be reported here that Ivanka Trump had worked as the driving force behind the $1 billion Saudi Arabia supported fund to promote entrepreneurship by women. The Treasury Department denied making any comments when asked about the list of potential candidates. The department said it has got multiple recommendations for filling the post, and they are initiating an internal review process for choosing a nominee for the United States. It also added that it was looking forward to working with the Governors to select the new chief.

The World Bank was founded after World War II. And, since its inception, by convention, the United States has been choosing its chiefs. But, recently the times have changed. Kim was the first chief to face resistance in the form of competition in 2012. A nominee of the United States no longer enjoys absolute access to the post. However, the Bank’s board had assured to have an open, merit-based and transparent selection procedure for selection of the chief and it would not exclude any candidates for not being American.

The World Bank Board has said that it would start accepting nominations for the replacement of Kim by the next month and the name of the next chief would be finalized by April. It also added that the next president of the elite institution should have a proven track record of leadership and experience in managing large organizations with international exposure.

The outgoing president of the World Bank has declared that he would work with the private sector to bridge the gap in funding meant for infrastructure development for the developing and underdeveloped nations. It should be noted here that there was information about a scuffle between the Trump administration and Kim, but the information was never officially verified. So, ultimately Kim’s departure has given President Trump an opportunity to post the person of his choice.

The World Bank Group consists of five organizations which provide funds on loan to developing nations for infrastructure development. It has currently 189 member countries. Along with the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) also works on that front. And like the World Bank, IMF has been having its chiefs from European origin from the starting.

Trading News

The US special representative for Iran said recently that there would not be any more waivers on the oil sanction posed by the United States on Iran. The step has been decided to choke off Iran’s source of income further.

In a news conference, he said Iran is gradually feeling isolated, and the sanctions are blocking a major part of the country’s revenue. The motive of the American sanction on Iran is to deny revenue to the country.

As per the United States’ version, around 80 percent of Iran’s revenue comes from oil exports, and Iran has been using it to augment state-sponsored terrorism. So, the United States will deny the money it needs to encourage terrorism by imposing sanctions.

All these tensions started in May 2018. President Trump abandoned the Iran nuclear deal saying the deal was skewed towards Iran’s undue advantage. Hence, by moving out of the nuclear deal, he again imposed the economic sanctions which were effective from 2015.

It should be reported here that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal or Iran deal is an agreement between six countries and the European Union after the United States withdrew on the charges of deal violation by Iran. However, none of the other countries in the Iran deal moved out. The other countries in the deal are China, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and European Union (EU).

As per an American envoy, U.S. wants negotiation and a better deal. But, Iran does not agree on the terms of U.S. So, the United States is trying to stop Iran get the billions of dollars as revenue. With huge pressure on liquidity crunch, Iran would come to the table for negotiation.

But, replying to that, Iran has confirmed that it did not want any negotiation or any new deal from the United States. And it would not compromise with its security for any deal. It is to be noted that the bone of contention here is Iran’s ballistic missile program, which was disliked by the United States and its allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Special envoy said the U.S. is happy that China has limited oil imports from Iran and they expect more cuts from China and they will ensure to do that.

Iran is going through a tough phase as it now struggles to get any new buyers due to U.S. sanction. But, some of the traditional customers of Iran managed to secure a waiver to get the Oil supply uninterrupted.

The countries which have managed to get the waivers were China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

The special envoy, when asked about the end date of sanction, denied making any comments further.

Trading News

After a series of criticisms by the U.S. President Donald Trump on OPEC, the relationship of the largest economy and the biggest oil exporting congregation seems to have halted. On the same note, Oman’s oil minister Mohammed bin Hamad al-Rumhi also said President Trump has not been very fair on OPEC. The criticisms made by him were undue and uncalled for.

At the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi, he said that Trump’s ideas and views on OPEC were misplaced. Though he accepted that Trump must be having good intentions for the people he is representing, the way things were happening was not correct.

He also added no one wants volatility in the market and the price, the same way President Trump also does not want volatility in the oil import, as volatility is difficult to manage.

It should be reported here that U.S. President Donald Trump has been criticizing the 14 member group for its management of oil output, urging the group to keep the taps open and oil prices low. OPEC has created much volatility in the American economy.

It should be reported here that in last December, OPEC members along with Russia had made an agreement to cut their crude production by 1.2 million barrels of oil per day from the market in order to stem the fall in prices. This has also attracted Trump’s criticism on a larger scale.

Oman’s minister also said that Politics had forced the President to take the issue on the social media and he said that was the reason for this scuffle between the OPEC and the United States.

But he did not fail to express his eagerness to have talks with the United States to resolve the issue. The issue should be resolved satisfying each of the parties despite it is impractical.

He also said he wishes to sit with President Trump and exchange ideas, though it seems tough in the present circumstances. But, this is the only way, as per the minister, to see the convergence.

As per the records, Oman produces about 900,000 barrels of oil per days, which is less than one-tenth the volume of OPEC’s largest producer Saudi Arabia. Oman has a population of 4.6 million, and it is expected to suffer more than other OPEC neighbors as the economic growth of Oman has been predicted to take a dip. Also, the once used to be strong, Omani rial, has also come under pressure and the country should consider of adopting austerity measures to recover.

News

After putting Amazon’s name into the most valuable list and being the richest man on the planet, founder Jeff Bezos has another feather on his cap. He is going to have the most expensive divorce. Jeff Bezos, 54, having a total worth over $137 billion through his stake in Amazon is the richest man in the world after surpassing Bill Gates of Microsoft. He also made Amazon as the most valuable company as far as the market capitalization goes. And Jeff’s announcement regarding the divorce his wife of 25 years, MacKenzie, is likely to become a remarkable event in history.

The Couple had issued a statement on social media on Wednesday saying that after a long period of loving exploration and trial separation; they had decided to divorce and continue to share their lives as friends.

Barring a prenuptial or postnuptial agreement already in place, the Washington State law prescribes for an equal split of wealth which has been accumulated during the time of marriage. And Amazon was founded by Jeff in 1994 after getting married in 1993.

As per the reports, MacKenzie would be getting the 50 percent of total Jeff’s wealth that sums to a whopping $66billion. The divorce would make MacKenzie the richest woman in the world, and it would also make Jeff out of the richest person list. After the divorce, it is likely that Bill Gates again will be on the top spot.

MacKenzie is a Princeton graduate and currently a novelist. She met Jeff in an interview for a job at a New York hedge fund. And, they got married after six months of dating, and now the couple has four children.

If the deal happens at 50:50 settlement, Jeff will have to sell or pledge his shares to fund the alimony of such a huge amount. There are also chances of argument by the lawyers from the side of Jeff that without Jeff the worth of the shares will not be that much.

However, until the divorce is finalized, it is to be seen how much is parted to MacKenzie. But, one thing is certain that the divorce will not have many disturbances as Amazon is a public listed company and it will have severe impacts on the company’s share price. And, no one would like to put the mighty stocks of the most valued company in the world, to tumble.

News

After being the bestselling smartphone in China, the premium iPhones are now losing market share in the largest smartphone market in the world. To retain the customers, retailers in China are offering huge discounts as the sale of these iPhones is struggling throughout the country.

As per the customers and experts, the phones are really expensive than it should be and it also lacks innovative features like its competitor Huawei is offering. The technology giant also admitted having predicted lower sales of iPhones for the next year owing to slash in demand and the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. And the lowering demand in China would definitely result in a bad revenue set up for the coming quarters for Apple.

Chinese biggest iPhone retailer Suning changed the price of the 128GB version of the iPhone XR from 6,999 yuan ($1,036) to 5,799 yuan ($858) — a 1,200 yuan ($178) discount. Other third-party sellers are even offering cheaper iPhones by flash sales. One seller was selling a 256GB version of the iPhone XS Max, Apple’s most premium device, for 9,699 yuan ($1,436), way below the U.S. firm’s official selling price of 10,999 yuan ($1,628) for that smartphone.

Yet, the selling prices of these phones are way above than the selling price of iPhones in the U.S. This particular iPhone XS is sold at $1249 in the American market.

An Apple reseller, Sunion, was advertising 700 yuan off for both the 128GB and 256GB versions of the iPhone XR. Pinduoduo, an e-commerce site is selling these phones through third-party sellers after a huge discount.

The issue with Apple products in China has two answers as per the consumers. First, it has bad pricing. The iPhones are too expensive with respect to its features, and it is not bringing innovative features to the phones as some local brands are doing. Now, as per statistics, much market share of Apple has been lost to other competitors in China.

Pricing Issue-

The price of the iPhones across all the models in not only China but also in any Asian market is way above than the price in the United States. For example, Apple’s 512GB iPhone XS Max, the most expensive of the new models, costs $1,499 in the U.S. But in Asia’s largest economy, the un-discounted price is 12,799 yuan, or nearly $1,900 — this about 26 percent premium on a single phone. And the same way iPhone XR, which was expected to be the cheapest of all iPhones, is also sold at a 28 percent premium in the Chinese market.

But, Apple has blamed the rising trade war between the two largest economies for this slump in demand in China. But, experts say the trade war is just an eye-wash, but the real issue in the Chinese market is its pricing.

It is time for Apple to identify the real issue and declare competitive pricing for the phones. But, as of now, Apple has no plans to slash the price anymore in the Chinese market. It also said that the company’s offer to upgrade iPhone 7 Plus with iPhone XR is also not very successful in China as customers feel that the new phone lacks any new thing or any new inventions.

Huawei-

Though the brand has been on the news for wrong in the international market, the business of Huawei is growing like anything. This has now become the second largest smartphone seller in the world replacing Apple. It is next to only Samsung, the Korean giant.

As per the Chinese consumers, Huawei is offering the newest of features, and they feel a certain sense of connectedness in buying smartphones of the local brand. Huawei phones are cost effective and offer popular features like triple lens camera and on-screen fingerprint scanner. The brand’s flagship phone P20 Pro has taken much interest of the buyers not only in the Chinese market but also in the international market.

The upgrade-

Apple also has not been very prompt to bring upgrades to its phones. Huawei and Samsung have announced that they would bring 5G technology by the end of 2019, but Apple does not seem to bring the high-speed internet technology by late 2020. Major Chinese telecom providers like China Mobile and China Telecom are planning to roll out 5G technology by the end of 2019.

There are lot many dimensions to the poor sales of the iPhones in China. Though the pricing is a major issue, the trade war also seems to be a big factor in this. For the betterment of the global trade, the trade imbroglio should end at the earliest. After all, it is the globalization which has made the best of the many western countries, and the same opportunity should be given to other Asian countries now.

Company News

Goldman Sachs has predicted to see low growth in earnings for the United States in 2019. So, terming it as a disappointment, it advised its clients to stay away from the companies most dependent and leveraged to economic growth.

In a research report, it had warned its bullish investors that the corporate profits of several big consumer brands might dip this year and investors have been advised to keep their expectation on that line.

David Kostin, the chief equity strategist for the firm, noted in the report that Weak guidance from several big companies such as Apple and Macy’s had increased the focus on S&P 500 earnings growth. He also added that the earnings had been the vital point on U.S. equities for the year 2018, but there is no doubt over continuing the same for 2019.

Fourth quarter results about earning are about to come, and it had expected to have a growth of about 22 percent all over from the previous year. The much-hyped tax cut might be one reason for this whooping growth. But, this is never happening in 2019. For the first quarter of 2019, companies are worried about the sales trend and profit earning trend. The whole world is experiencing slow growth, and it is not different in the United States as well. Due to low demand, the companies’ profit earning may get decreased.

As of now, Goldman’s expectation from the market to grow for the whole of 2019 is at 6 percent. Here the market specifies to S&P 500 companies. But, as per some economists in Goldman as well, this figure seems very ambitious.

The note states the recent developments in the macroeconomic landscape have the potential to drive up to $5 of potential downside to our 2019 EPS (earnings per share) estimate (to $168). The note also says that the prediction by its economists is an average annual real GDP growth of 2.4 percent for the US (-20 bp vs. baseline) and 3.5 percent for the whole world (-30 bp vs. baseline).

The crux of the whole story is the earnings growth per share this year can come down to as low as 3 percent this year after considering additional factors such as a stronger dollar and falling oil prices.

It also has advised its clients to decide for themselves whether they will keep on bidding on certain stocks after the low performance in the fourth quarter of 2018. The S&P 500 is up just by 3.6 percent so far in 2018 after a gain of two weeks only. Macy’s has posted its worst trading day in the last quarter, yet its stocks are high. And the tech giant Apple has already made it clear that it would make fewer iPhones for 2019 owing to a trade war and low demand in China.

Moreover, Goldman – one of the Top Wealth Management Firms is advising its client to be cautious as overall economic and earnings growth expectations are getting dipped. It is recommending its clients to stay away from the stocks which have betas to economic growth, like the materials and industrial sectors.

News

Chinese premier Li Keqiang has stated that the tax cuts in the country are intended to boost employment and foster economic stability. China had introduced a series of measures to cool its economy in 2018 and is expected to roll out more of such support measures in 2019 to combat any risks for a steep slowdown in the economy.

As per the Chinese governmental website, premier stated that all tax cuts are directed at small and micro enterprises for creating more employment. China is scheduled to lower the taxes for small businesses.

Background

China had come up with new tax cuts for businesses last year to support growth and keep the economy afloat as the fears of a trade war with the US grew. As the tensions between two of the greatest world economies soared, Beijing kept up its infrastructure expenditure and continued to assist smaller businesses as the Chinese economy cooled. The government had stated that it would follow an active fiscal policy to help the businesses in their struggle with a liquidity crunch and a fall in demand.

Taxes play a dominating part in the Chinese economy- a position which has been further augmented due to the growing uncertainties both at home and abroad. The country has managed to keep the tax policy and reform in sync. The government had merged the central and local tax departments for the ease of taxpayers. The reduction in taxes helped bring the enterprise cost down which was a great boost to the private businesses whose fate was in limbo due to increasing costs and new challenges of the market. The government thus planned more tax cuts and increased in fee reduction reforms for the prosperity of the private sector.

The private sector has a great role in the Chinese economy, and thus any tax policy should aim at the promotion of the equality principle. The private sector involves SMEs, micro businesses, hi-technology companies, etc. Tax cuts can definitely economic woes of the private sector enterprises, but there are other issues also facing the sector. These include the difficulty of the process to get loans and also other administrative hurdles and charges. Thus, merely lowering the VAT will not serve the purpose unless other related charges and policy-hurdles are also addressed. In addition, to the governmental boost, the private enterprises have to do a thorough overhaul and focus on innovation and research which is the life-line of the sector. Innovation breeds new vigor and vitality to the business. There is an increased need to work on the core-competitiveness of their businesses. This is essential for holistic development of the private sector.

Political News

United States president Donald Trump has threatened to declare an emergency to fund the US-Mexico border wall. This is Trump’s escape route to fund the project as there is mounting pressure to end the three-week long impasse. Parts of the government has not functioned, even though workers are reporting to work and that has left tens of thousands of them without a paycheck.

The President when asked to comment on the difficult situation some 800,000 workers are in due to unpaid paychecks, he sidestepped the question and was quoted as saying he felt bad ‘for people that have family members killed’ by criminals who come from the Mexico border. Speaking on Thursday from McAllen, Texas, he highlighted the drugs and crime and called it a crisis. He also said that if the agreement does not come through and Congress does not approve the $5.7 billion needed for the wall, he will declare an emergency.


Is the situation really that bad?

Does it warrant an emergency is what most people are wondering? According to Trump, yes. He has called the flocking of migrants from across the border as a humanitarian and national emergency. Trump also said that criminals, drug and human traffickers and all those coming into the country and that there are certain things that are happening that people would not want to know. But there have been multiple studies conducted by think tank Cato Institute and social scientists and found no evidence that illegal immigrants are likely to commit crimes. In fact, those studies showed that they are less likely to do an offense than a US citizen and legal immigrants are even less likely to do any crime.

Can emergency be declared?

Yes, Trump has the power to declare an emergency to build the wall as he had promised. He has been consulting with various allies and attorneys in the White House about using those powers to make the building of the wall possible. As per Trump, his lawyers said that his action is legal and if there is scrutiny he would come out of it unscathed.  

The Congress, on the other hand, can reverse the decision made by the President if both chambers approve. But the challenge is that the Senate has a Republican majority and thus quite difficult to overturn. The decision can lead to many challenges in court.

The government shutdown is slowly inching to a record of the longest closure since 1996, and that does not look good for those who are hoping for a quick end to this situation.