Financial Planning

Cost cutting has often been regarded as a tried and tested method by large corporations, which want to generate bigger profits. Sometimes, those measures work, but sometimes they don’t, and in the case of American food and beverage, it hasn’t. The plunge in revenues and billions in write-offs for two of its biggest brands has cratered the stock since Thursday. Following the debacle, experts are now questioning whether the firm’s aggressive cost-cutting techniques are to blame for their declining fortunes.

On Friday, the Kraft Heinz’s stock plunged by as much as 27% amid widespread panic sell off and the announcement from the company that they were writing down $15.4 billion from the brand value of two key brands- Oscar Mayer and Kraft. Additionally, dividends had also been slashed from 63 cents to 40 cents and needless to say, investors are far from thrilled.

Kraft Heinz’s troubles regarding cost-cutting can be traced to the company’s decision to resort to zero-based budgeting, and many believe that this particular approach is at the basis of the company’s troubles. As per the zero-based budgeting approach, executives sit down and start budgeting with a clean slate, rather than using the budget from the previous year and while that has been successful for many companies, it has not been so for Kraft Heinz. The perils of zero-based budgeting were pointed out consultancy firm BCG back in 2017. According to the report, “The cuts can be impressive, and that’s a big win. When it’s applied clumsily, ZBB can have a demoralizing impact that distracts the organization from growth and value creation.” It seems the executives at Kraft Heinz have not been able to apply it well and according to many experts, cost cutting is something that is tough in the food industry. Any change in an ingredient can often lead to an alteration in the product, and it can be rejected by consumers.

That being said, it is important to point out that many other consumer giants like Mondelez International and Unilever have used this strategy. None of them have had such poor results thus far. According to many analysts, the executives at Kraft Heinz could be the fault here, and an analyst at Investec said as much. He said, “I think it’s a black eye for Kraft Heinz management for not implementing it in as a sophisticated way as might be necessary, or maybe they just implemented it too hard, too fast. I don’t think ZBB per se is the problem.”

Company News

Swiggy is reportedly closing on a deal to acquire Uber Eats, the food delivery arm of online cab booking company Uber. The business was launched in January 2017 and is currently worth over $330 million.

At the time of launch, Uber India had high hopes from Uber Eats, however stiff competition from established giants like Zomato, and Swiggy made the journey quite difficult. Therefore, the San Francisco based company has decided to sell the ailing business to curb losses. The move will also help the Uber go for IPO with a targeted valuation of $120-$150 billion. Apart from Swiggy, reports have suggested that Gurugram based Zomato is also in contention to acquire Uber Eats. Swiggy and Zomato are arch-rivals in the online food delivery space; both of them are fighting very hard to increase their market share.

Uber Eats India is currently executing around 150,000 to 250,000 deliveries per day, generating around $200-$300 million in sales. On the other hand, Swiggy and Zomato manage to squeeze out business almost four or five times of Uber’s numbers. Uber’s delivery arm is currently ranked 3rd, ahead of Foodpanda, owned by rival ride-booking company Ola.

Uber reported a loss $1.8 billion for 2018, and it desperately wants to shed loss-making units away before it goes for the IPO in India. Reports have surfaced that Uber Eats in India was losing about $15 to $20 million per month. Contrasting to the recent developments, Uber Eats had said last year that India is one of the fastest growing markets, claiming that it was adding 4,500 delivery personnel per week, an adding 100 restaurants a day in the country.

India is one of the markets where Uber still suffers high losses. It has already sold businesses in China, Russia, and Southeast Asia to rivals, to curb losses. Contrastingly the market leaders, Swiggy and Zomato are reportedly losing $30-$40 million each month. The two main reasons for these losses are the regular discounts given to customers to attract them, and high incentives to delivery personnel.

Experts have been projecting a market consolidation, sooner or later. The food delivery space offers razor-thin margins; large scale competition is causing companies to bleed. Uber Eats was also rumored to consolidate with Ola’s Foodpanda, as both have a common investor in Softbank which holds substantial shares in both firms.

The transaction, if completed, will be the first move towards sector consolidated of food delivery space in India. Though Zomato is trying too, Swiggy is expected to close the deal as early as next month. This will be the Bangalore based company’s largest acquisition till date, and will also be Uber’s first divestment of its food business globally. Uber its is estimated to be valued at around $20 billion, and the business generates $1.5 billion in revenues.

The transaction is most likely to be structured as a share-swap deal, with Uber accepting shares in Swiggy as contract remuneration. Uber is expected to get 10% shares in Swiggy. The Indian food delivery service company is valued at around $3.3 billion.

Trading News

The world’s biggest manufacturer of computers, Lenovo Group, shrugged off the United China-China trade tensions to post a handsome profit in its quarterly results. The Chinese companies results beat the estimates of analysts, and this is an important development since many would have expected the computer maker’s results to be disappointing due to the trade war. Following the results, the Lenovo stock rose sharply and at one point rose by more than 11%.

The average of the estimates by 10 analysts pegged the company’s net profit at $207 million for the quarter, but Lenovo beat these numbers comfortably with a net profit of $233 million. The quarterly results show the sort of turnaround that Lenovo has enjoyed. In the same quarter last year, they had posted a $289 million loss. The company’s revenues stood at $14.04 billion, which reflects a handsome rise of 8.5%.

Lenovo announced that its foothold of the global computer market now stood at 24.6% and in addition to that, the companies smaller smartphone business also recorded a profit. The mobile phone unit recorded a profit of $3 million, before taxes. On the other hand, the company’s loss-making data center unit reduced its losses by a big margin in the latest quarter. It recorded a loss of $55 million, which is a healthy 31% drop from a disappointing $86 million loss in the same quarter last year.

All this is particularly heartening for a Chinese company, which delivered this strong result at a time when many other companies have gone into a bit of a meltdown. According to Gartner, which tracks the personal computer industry, shipments fell in 1.3 percent during the course of 2018, and despite that, Lenovo managed to grow its market share to 24.6%.

However, the Chief Executive Officer of Lenovo, Yang Yuanqing pointed out that there is still scope for massive growth for the company in China. He stated that despite being the world’s biggest market for smartphones, China has not yet toppled the United States when it comes to personal computers and that is not ‘not consistent’ with the population of the country. He went on to state that the company would look for more consolidation and have a bigger focus on the premium personal computer business. That being said, the shadow of the US-China trade talks looms large over most companies, and Yang stated that it is something that hurts all companies. He said, “Definitely we don’t want to see more trade war, political tension. If that continues, that will affect everyone, not just us, all multinationals.”

Financial Planning

International Monetary Fund (IMF) economists have come up with the idea of separating electronic money and cash as a way of securing future stability of the world economy. Doing so will give the central banks a way to enable the negative interest rates needed to combat future recessions of the world economy? Base interest rates have been at an all-time low around the world since the last financial crash in 2008. Historically every major financial crash has resulted in a 3-6% cut from interest base rates. If a future financial recession was to happen now, there isn’t much room left for economies to introduce interest base rate cuts. Cash the current base currency is designed to have a lower bound interest rate of zero. In such a situation, the negative base rate will force central banks around the world to either compress their margins or introduce interest rates on bank deposits.

Charging negative interest rates on deposits will invariably result in a worldwide mass withdrawal of cash. The IMF notes that instead of paying negative interest, one can simply hold cash at zero interest. Acting as a free option on zero interest, cash will be the interest rate floor around the world. A predominantly e-money economy will not be limited by a lower bound on an interest rate of zero percent. The central banks would reduce the rate to a negative figure forcing consumers to invest in the economy or simply spend money as a preferable option, boosting the economy and acting as a normalizing agent.

Many countries such as Sweden have driven the e-money economy and pushed rates slightly below zero. The negative interest rate has made it difficult to hold cash and deterred most depositors from doing so. But cash still plays a major role in world economies like Japan, Switzerland, and Hungary where people prefer the person to person nature of cash transactions.

According to an IMF excerpt, “While a dual currency system challenges our preconceptions about money, countries could implement the idea with relatively small changes to a central bank operating frameworks. In comparison to alternative proposals, it would have the advantage of completely freeing monetary policy from the zero lower bound. Its introduction would reconfirm the central bank’s commitment to the inflation target, rather than raise doubts about it.” Such as dual currency system will allow the central banks to introduce an exchange rate for cash to e-money. Countering a recession of the future would require central banks to introduce a negative interest rate on cash as a measure to ensure that cash is being spent and the economy is well fed.

Company News

With the recent enactment of EU’s Payment Service Directive (P2D2) requirement for banks to create APIs that let third parties initiate payments on behalf of consumers. Adyen has become an early adapter to this by introducing a new open banking payments method that will enable authentication of payments between the consumer and the bank avoiding chargebacks generated due to card frauds or an inability to capture funds. Upon selecting the payment type, the customers will be redirected to their bank’s online environment to securely confirm the transaction. Adyen with its latest financial technology will handle the payment flow between banks and merchants. Their latest offering is suggested to decrease transaction processing costs for higher value transactions while at the same time open banking will offer real-time credit transfers guaranteeing payments and enabling merchants to confirm payments and ship orders immediately.

It is constantly striving to innovate and simplify the payments process for consumers and merchants. Adyen is a unique payment solution provider that is the choice for many of the world’s leading companies. Fraud protection has been an increasing priority in today’s digital economy. Traditional card transactions are slow, charge higher processing costs and are prone to frauds. With this latest addition in the company’s offerings, Adyen has become the first payments provider to offer a fully compliant, direct payment solution in the UK and it has been continuously working with Open Banking Implementation Entities to bring the benefits of a digitized payments system to consumers and merchants alike.

“It is exciting to see another great example of open banking powering innovation and leading to new services which ultimately help drive efficiencies in payments,” said Imran Gulamhuseinwala OBE, Trustee of OBIE (Open Banking Implementation Entity). “Adyen is a great example of how consumers and organizations can benefit from increased collaboration and secure data sharing between financial institutions.”

Dutch airline KLM is the first major brand to roll out the new offering. The service is now live and accessible to all UK customers. After Brexit, UK has become the most important foreign market for EU nation companies. “It is great to see that KLM is the first airline to offer this open banking payment option to our UK customers. BY working with Adyen’s payment initiative, we are offering customers a wider choice of payment options securely and seamlessly,” said Pieter Groeneveld, Senior Vice President at KLM Royal Dutch Airlines.

Company News

Air France and KLM have to manage to agree on strengthening ties between the airlines, putting an end to a power struggle that had been bothering the Dutch government, staff, and shareholders.

In the process, Air France has secured a salary agreement with pilots after an elongated protest which saw them college strike last year, which caused €335 million ($380 million) to evaporate from the 2018 profits. The truce between the two airlines was declared on Wednesday morning by company officials.

Specifics of the deals, however, weren’t released, though the group Chief Financial Official Frederic Gaygey stated that the Air France-KLM plans would boost both the companies’ prospects despite high fuel prices and other obstacles ahead. Gaygey also said that the group was “absolutely not” considering a merger between the two airlines completely.

The Franco-Dutch airline group pledged new efficiency games to tackle higher fuel costs this year with a motive to deepen cooperation between two of its main careers, Air France and KLM. While presenting 2018 earnings of the group, Chief Executive Officer Ben Smith assured Better coordinated network and fleets after subsiding KLM resistance against closure integration with Air France in a new deal. Smith said these achievements pave the way for the group’s ambition to regain a leading position in Europe and across the globe.

Rivals like Lufthansa and British Airways continue to maintain a profitability lead on Air France and KLM due to restrictive French union deals, and strikes that took away a substantial chunk of profits last year forcing out the previous CEO. Ben Smith joined the group, hit by internal conflicts in September 2018. Smith, an ex-Air Canada veteran, has successfully resolved labor issues by granting wage hikes in return for increased flexibility, which now give hopes to make better and more profitable use of the group aircraft and networks.

The board of Air France-KLM has also agreed to reappoint Pieter Elbers as KLMs chief executive officer.

Ben Smith met with the Dutch government Ministers of Finance and infrastructure last week to discuss the future of the Air France-KLM alliance. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, while addressing journalists in a press conference on Friday, said that it was extremely important for the Dutch economy that KLM functions well. However, he refrained from giving out any details from the discussion between his Ministers and Ben Smith. He further added that the esteemed organization was out of danger though not functioning as brilliantly as other airlines.

As per the new deal, Air France pilots will get a 4.3% hike in return for concessions including extended flexibility on leave and sharing routes with KLM. The dominant SNPL pilots union signed the deal after received 85% support in a ballot.

Conflicts between the two flagship airlines began last year as Smith, after his appointment in September, started pushing for a more concerted decision making between the two brands as well as his seat on the KLM board. This development encountered resistance from KLM’s workforce, including CEO Pieter Elbers. Due to this, a possible departure of Elbers started to hover especially after his contract would expire in April. This led to a show of public support by the Dutch career’s employees last week, which triggered talks between Smith and Dutch ministers.

Trading News

Declaring the annual financial report card for 2018, HSBC on Tuesday admitted falling short of expectations on several fronts, following a challenging fourth quarter. Markets across the globe experienced sharp falls in business activity during the last quarter.

Europe’s largest bank’s reported pre-tax profits for 2018 stood at $19.89 billion, a 15.9% jump from the previous year. Total revenue reported for the last year was $53.78 billion, 4.5% higher than in 2017. However, the London based bank’s pre-tax profit for the year gone by was expected to be at $21.26 billion, a 23.8% hike from 2017. Revenue projections were at $54.674 billion, 6.28% higher than the previous year.

The lender bank warned that it might have to scale down investment plans to avoid missing a key target known as ‘positive jaws,’ tracks whether banks are growing revenues faster than costs, for a second straight year. The share prices of HSBC fell by 3%. The bank has attributed the shortfall of expectations to the slowing trade in China and the UK.

HSBC CEO John Flint said on Tuesday that the bank would be proactive in managing costs and investments to meet risk to growth ratios where necessary. However, he assured that they wouldn’t take short term decisions that would hurt business interests in the longer run. He stated that the key focus would be to moderate investments and not to cancel or change the shape of investments.

The Chinese economy has slowed down to a 28-year low at 6.6%. This has challenged HSBC’s plans to increase investments in Asia, from where the banking giant accumulates 90% of its total profits. One of the major reasons for the slowdown of China is its elongated trade tussle with the United States. And if Beijing and Washington don’t reach the point of mutual consent, businesses will continue to suffer in both countries.

Asian markets contributed $17.8 billion to the bank’s profits, 16% more than what they did in 2017. Flint said that though the profits from Asia would continue to grow, the growth rate will dip a little due to the Sino-US trade war.

On the other hand, business back home continues to suffer. The sword of a no-deal Brexit is hanging on the UK as the deadline for Britain’s exit from the European Union is approaching. HSBC recently set aside $165 million against possible future bad loans in Britain, which reflected potential economic suffering due to a no-deal Brexit. Commenting of UK figures, Flint said that the longer uncertainty hovers around, the worse situations will continue to be for their customers. Due to uncertainty, the majority of the bank’s customers are postponing investments, which has resulted in the slowdown of the UK economy.

The core capital ratio of HSBC dropped to 14% for December 2018, a 0.5% drop from the previous year’s corresponding period, mainly due to adverse foreign exchange movements. Nonetheless, the bank has announced that it will be paying the yearly dividend at $0.51 per share, which is more or less in line with what markets analysts had predicted.

Company News

The Chief Executive Officer of Nordea Bank Abp Casper von Koskull has called on the critics of Finland based back to show patience and added that bank is well on its way to staging a turnaround in the fiscal year 2020. Nordea Bank has been in doldrums for some time, and in recent years, the bank went on an aggressive cost-cutting spree. The bank laid off workers, embraced technology and generally tried to turn it into a much more efficient organization.

However, the recent fourth quarter result has not gone down well with key investors and angry investors even went on to state that the less than satisfactory results were a sign that enough progress had not been made. Sampo, which holds around 20% of the bank’s shares, stated that the bank’s most important ‘performance indicators’ did not meet the standards of Nordic banks. Another investor simply said that the profit recorded by the bank in the fourth quarter was too low.

The bank’s CEO has now taken a swing at the investors and called them impatient during the course of an interview. Koskull said, “When I look at 2019, my clear ambition is that we have growing income and reduced costs. Markets are always impatient.” He went on to state that the bank is going to stage a comeback in 2019 and Nordea’s asset management division is going to have a big say in it. The CEO stated that the asset management business is poised to swing into profits.

The bank’s income has gone down drastically and has dropped to 9 billion Euros in 2018. However, Koskull has assured that the bank is looking at plenty of new avenues through which income could be boosted. Other than asset management, he believes the bank has the chance to get into segments in which it did not venture before. For instance, private banking in Norway and Sweden is one of the options he spoke about. He went on to state that the bank has a huge room for improvement and growth is around the corner. He said that in 2018, the bank’s traditionally strong asset management earnings did not go as planned and that gives Nordea an excellent opportunity to raise income in the coming year. Koskull is bullish about his hopes regarding the asset management business. He said, “I’m convinced we can get the asset management that has been shrinking. We will get that back; now we have a new starting point. We have the products, the capabilities in place. It doesn’t need magic to get that back.”

News

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit and a gloomy job outlook have plunged the household income outlook index in the United Kingdom to an 11-month low. The IHS Markit’s Household Finance Index tracks the sentiments of people regarding their income expectations, and it is indicative that the index has plunged to its 11-month low just as the Brexit deadline approaches on 29th of March. The index is created after gathering information from respondents through a survey. Needless to say, the slowdown in the British economy is much to blame regarding the income outlook for many households. In 2018, the economic growth slowed to a dead stop at one point, and the growth rate was the lowest since the dark days of 2012.

The index reached its lowest in January, and it has plunged again this month, despite the fact that unemployment levels in the UK are currently at record lows. Joe Hayes, an economist at IHS Markit, said that worries about job security and Brexit uncertainty are the reason behind the current state of the index. He said, “The impact on confidence caused by Brexit uncertainty continues to pose a notable risk to the domestic economy, also highlighted by job security perceptions becoming increasingly negative in February.”

According to the Bank of England, the British central bank, the growth rate of the UK economy is going to slow down drastically, and there are fears that the rate of growth might be as slow as that in 2009. In addition to that, the great of the UK exiting the European Union without a deal is very much there, and if that happens, then the economy is expected to plunge into complete chaos. The trade tensions between the United States and China and a global economic slowdown has not helped matters either for the British economy. Additionally, many companies which had set up operations in the UK are planning to move jobs abroad, and it is hardly a surprise that the British citizens are worried about their employment in a post-Brexit world.

However, it needs to be stressed that the sentiments expressed in the index are largely to do with some of the most recent events that have been plaguing the economy. According to analysts, the official government data that is going to be published on Tuesday is all set to reflect the fastest wage growth in a decade, and maybe the situation might not be as gloomy once everything blows over.

Opinion & Analysis

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has reported profits of £1.62 billion for the year ending 2018. The year on year profit growth has been over 200% from £752 million in the preceding year. The Bank has revealed a near £1 billion windfall for the taxpayer.

This is the bank’s second consecutive year yielding profits, and its performance allows it to pay a more than expected dividend, with £977 million returning to the treasury. This is the first time since 2007 that the RBS has posted profits for two years in a row.

He further added that the bank is also announcing an intention to pay back more capital to shareholders, and claimed that £1 billion is about to be returned to the UK taxpayers for 2018.

The RBS will be paying a final ordinary dividend of 3.5p per share and a 7.5p special dividend. Ross McEwan, chief executive officer of RBS, said in a statement that this was a positive performance in times of economic and political uncertainty, commending the bottom-line profits than doubled from what the bank achieved in the preceding year. Apart from the profit figures, the annual report published by the RBS also showed that the pay package of McEwan from £3.5 million in 2017 to £3.6 million in 2018.

He further added that the bank is also announcing an intention to pay back more capital to shareholders and claimed that £1 billion is about to be returned to the UK taxpayers for 2018. McEwan said that they are very well positioned to support the UK economy accompanied by strong capital and liquidity levels. He also said that the total banks lending to business and commercial clients crossed the £100 billion mark at the end of 2018.

However, McEwan has warned against a no deal Brexit. In a recent interview, he opined that uncertainty over Brexit was hitting investments, and urged politicians to come up with a conclusion as early as possible. He stated that larger businesses have been pausing investments in the UK for the last few quarters. This might adversely affect small businesses who cater to the large ones, ultimately trickling down jobs and money that comes into the economy. He expressed his concerns on the approaching deadline of March end and felt that certainty over the big fallout is extremely crucial for business.

Nonetheless, the RBS has declared that it would pay £355 million as bonuses to staff. Past week RBS acquired shareholder approval to buy back shares of up to £1.5 billion value from the Treasury. The move aims to accelerate the privatization process by buying back 4.99% of the government’s stake per year. Currently, the British Government owns 62.4% shares in the RBS. As on today, the bank’s stock is trading around 240p per share, which is far less than 502p that the government paid as a bailout (£45b) during the peak of the 2008 financial crisis.

The Treasury plans to sell its stake in the RBS by 2024, with expected losses amounting to billions.